A new report from Embraer on the untapped potential of intra-African air connectivity underscores the role of improved air travel in driving economic growth and development across the continent.
Despite Africa accounting for 18% of the world’s population, it contributes less than 3% to global GDP and only 2.1% to global air passenger and cargo traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association. This disparity is fundamental in the continent's limited intra-regional air connectivity, a significant bottleneck in Africa's economic and aviation development.
The report, unveiled earlier this month at the AviaDev conference in Zanzibar, identifies the need for more direct flights, more frequencies, efficient hubs and stronger partnerships and alliances.
It also identifies a requirement for right-sized aircraft.
Africa's GDP is expected to grow at 3.8% annually over the next 20 years, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) growth projected at 4.4% per year, surpassing growth rates in Europe and North America. Although Africa has the world's lowest propensity to travel, its potential for growth is immense. Developing intra-regional connectivity will be a key driver of this growth.
Prior to the report’s publication, however, observers have noted that Africa’s connectivity has been stymied by a combination of factors, including high taxes and ticket charges, fuel costs, visa requirements and protectionism by national governments.
Currently, 64% of intra-African markets are served by seven weekly flights or fewer, indicating a significant opportunity to enhance connectivity, the report says. Many African origin-and-destination (O&D) markets remain underserved or entirely unserved by direct flights, forcing some passengers to connect through distant hubs in Europe or the Middle East.
Embraer’s report identifies 45 intra-African routes not currently served with a direct flight that could sustain multiple weekly direct flights. The top 10 routes could sustain at least three direct flights per week with a 100-seat aircraft.
The report also utilizes an intra-Africa stimulation curve developed by Embraer, based on the last 10 years’ traffic data, which estimates expected passenger numbers when opening a direct flight. The data shows that the stimulation factor varies according to the market size.
For example, a market with 50 passengers before the opening of a direct flight will see a 40% increase in demand. For a smaller market such as 20 passengers, the opening of a direct flight would result in an 80% increase in demand.
Increased frequencies are also crucial for improving connectivity quality, offering passengers more flexibility and convenience.
Right-sized aircraft are essential for developing connectivity in fragmented markets, the company says. These offer lower trip costs and increased range, making them suitable for both short and medium-haul routes, and for opening and growing new routes.
“This report, and the data behind it, highlights the significant potential for new routes and improved hub connectivity across Africa,” says Stephan Hannemann, Embraer commercial aviation senior vice president for sales and marketing and head of the Middle East and Africa region. “By deploying the right aircraft and enhancing intra-regional air travel, Africa can unlock new economic opportunities, improve the overall travel experience for millions of passengers, and unlock the continent’s economic potential.”
"Embraer’s new report illustrates the vast opportunities already on offer to deliver better intra-African connectivity and ensure a robust and resilient future,” AviaDev’s founder and CEO Jon Howell says.
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